19-20 - Geopolitics

ucla | GEOG 4 | 2023-12-06 01:56

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Table of Contents

• US and China in context
  • Comparing Ideologies
    • Pros to “Rising China”
    • Cons to “Rising China” -> Pros to “Slipping US”
  • Critique of Comparison
  • Conclusions
• World-City System
  • Conclusions

US and China in context

• 4 major geopolitical eras:
  • European Colonialism: 1815-1875
  • Inter-Imperial Rivalry: 1875-1945
  • Cold War: 1945-1990
  • Post-1990: Market access and networked power
    • global supply chains etc, very diff to previous eras
• Focus points
  • US decline?
  • Rise of china?
  • states and city-networks
• GDP vs GDP per capita
  • 
  • 
• Popularity of “Slipping US” and a “Rising China”
  • 

    Comparing Ideologies

    Pros to “Rising China”

• manufacturing heft (but will change as the state becomes more advanced in technology)
  • 
• trading partners
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• weight in world GDP and forex reserves
  • 
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• drift eastward iun world GDP
  • 
• sovereign wealth funds
  • 
• IPOs
  • 
• world banking rankings
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• innovation post fossil suels -> EV, sustainable
  • 
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• investment source
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• political reassertion -> looking forward, future china initiatves, etc.
  • 
• US fears conflict
  • 

Cons to “Rising China” -> Pros to “Slipping US”

• biggest companies still in US-based (may have large foreign asseets) and GDP and role of US$ as corporate trade
  • 
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• China’s large but ageing population
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• misrepresentation of graphs
  • 
• China won’t reach 60% of US’s per capita GDP until 2060 at current rate
  • 
• debt financing is a toll on Chinese businesses
  • 
• China lags in IT
  • 
• China may overtake US as largest economy by 2033 iff growth stays above 7% GDP growth per year
  • 

Critique of Comparison

• Might not be as useful as a comparison as we think:
• decoupling and protectionism
  • 
• world’s outlook and reliance on US
  • 
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• US military spending may be overstretched
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• China is becoming more invested in the world economy
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    Conclusions

• China-US compeition is anxious: each is inderdependent to each other and to the world economy
• US as the center of globalization may mistake China as one of the largest investors that allowed for its rise
• nation representation may be an issue: perhaps world-city system is a larger part of glboal economics, not just states

World-City System

• model for world economy supported by urban trade centers as megacities throughout the world instead of state-based trade; reasons:
• transport cost vs agglomeration econ
  • 
• cities as growth nodes
  • east asia and southern hemisphere mostly sent forward by major cities
    • 
  • world is less Euro-central and less focus on NA as large cities throughout the world create connectioncs and are organized around intercity networks
    • 
• privatization of political authority
  • credit rating
    • 
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  • low tax jurisdictions
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• megacities and evolving city-systems
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• large cities without agglomeration economies
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• technological limits to economic growth
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• transport costs increasing
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    Conclusions

• Cities rule in the world economy with agglomeration economies
• cities are the dominant nodes of growth today more so than the past
• not all urbanization is productive in therms of growth and increasing incomes (most wages are down and standard of living falls)
• we may be coming to the limits to growth from technology and sustainability standpoints
  • the biggest challenge to globalization